Brian Smith, The Perfect Storm: Donald Trump and the 2016 Election

Posted by on Tuesday, November 22nd, 2016 in Blog

November 22, 2016

Reported by Leslie Bagby

President Dale Lowe called the meeting to order right at noon. Vlad Bahrencu led the pledges and Russell Gallahan gave the invocation. Jim Bryce led us in reciting the “FOUR WAY TEST”. Grant
Glauser was our greeter at the top of the stairs and Carl Noble introduced our visitors and guests.

President Dale introduced our newest members Vlad Bahrencu (sponsor Don Busby) and PeterPfeiffer (sponsor Barry Curlee). Welcome Vlad and Peter! He also presented Grant Glauser with his blue badge. Congratulations, Grant!

Leslie Bagby announced the Camp Enterprise Camp Volunteer sign up meeting next week Tuesday at 1:15 pm in the Vestry Conference Room.

Michael Portman introduced our newest Paul Harris Fellows: Arnold Garcia, Grant Glauser, Andy Swanson and Earl Dumitru (guest/visitor)

After Fellowship time, Jim Bushnell introduced our speaker, Brian Smith, Ph.D., Professor of Political Science and Associate Dean of the School of Behavioral and Social Sciences at St. Edward’s University. Brian presented “The Perfect Storm: Donald Trump and the 2016 Election”.

One month prior to the election, political pundit Nate Silver predicted that Hillary Clinton had a 71.4% chance of winning the election and Donald Trump had a 28.6% chance of winning. But on Election Day Trump was able to flip all the states necessary to win the majority of the Electoral College votes. Brian presented “Four Quick Things” that contributed to Trump’s win:

1. Party identification – While many people said they would never vote for Donald Trump, when it came down to Election Day, they stayed with their party.

2. More “Late Deciders” voted for Trump.

3. The desire for change. Historically, after eight years of one party in the oval office, more Americans will vote for the other party.

4. The opposing candidate Hillary Clinton had “lots of baggage.” More people that disliked both candidates voted for Trump rather than Clinton.

Additionally, there were a number of myths that did not survive this campaign and election season. Hillary Clinton spent almost double the campaign dollars as her opponent and won all 3 debates, but still lost the election. The “Democratic Blue Wall” crumbled with states like Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa turning red on Election Day.

Brian stated that while no one likes or really understands the Electoral College, hundreds of attempts have been made to do away with this system; but it remains the way we elect our President. Like a football game, regardless of yards gained, the team with the most points wins.

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